Perez is set to be ushered out of the operation following this weekend’s Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
It will bring to a close a dismal season for the Mexican who has struggled for form through much of it.
The reasons for that are far from clear; if they were known Red Bull Racing would have done what it took to resolve the problem.
Whatever is hindering the six-time race winner is a mystery, in many ways as it was in the latter stages of Daniel Ricciardo’s career.
The pace is clearly still there and his ability hasn’t simply disappeared, but translating that into results has become inconsistent to put it mildly.
With Red Bull Racing in the thick of a world championship battle as intense as 2024 has been, it simply cannot afford a driver to under-perform.
Secure your spot today.
And the squad has been patient, arguably too patient. Ahead of the summer break there were suggestions a change would be made, and arguably there was another opportunity after Singapore too.
On both occasions, with the writing on the wall, team boss Christian Horner remained loyal to the Mexican driver.
But that can only go so far and, though Perez has a contract for 2025, he will be shown the door in the near future – whether he goes voluntarily or not is an entirely different topic.
Perez is set to be offered an ambassadorial role with Red Bull, a concession and sign of appreciation for his contribution. Let us not forget the role he played for Max Verstappen in 2021.
If he chooses not to accept that role, he’ll leave empty handed as the decision to axe him is thought to have already be made.
Should Verstappen win this weekend’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and score the bonus point for fastest lap, and Perez fail to score, the Dutchman will end the year with three times his team-mate’s points.
It’s a depressing position for the 34-year-old, and a sad end to a career, but such is the nature of professional sport that the end doesn’t always come on your own terms.
And such is F1 that discussion immediately centres on who will replace him, with Lawson thought the firm favourite.
The New Zealander has only 10 races under his belt, but has impressed the Red Bull management.
It’s been suggested he’s out-performed RB team-mate Yuki Tsunoda, which is difficult to understand when one considers championship position, race and qualifying results alone.
But that is far from the complete picture. The squad has dozens of other data points we are not privy to, along with a host of ‘soft’ measures surrounding things like commercial ability, media skills, and so on.
Even in his short time in F1 he’s shown himself to be ruthless and unyielding, valuable traits when one begins racing at the very front.
Against Tsunoda, he’s shown well. He hasn’t blown the Japanese driver into the weeds, but one can hardly expect that in an RB that has wild performance swings of its own.
That he is nip and tuck with his more experienced team-mate however is a significant point in his favour.
Four years into his F1 journey, Tsunoda remains rough around the edges and particularly prone to radio outbursts.
He is also somewhere close to his own performance ceiling; it’s difficult to imagine there’s chunks of potential to still be found.
Conversely, Lawson has had less than half a season. He’s perhaps half a step behind Tsunoda on track now but his performance ceiling seems higher.
Wrap that around his ability to work with engineers, his likeable nature, and ability with the media and he arguably already presents a more complete package with strong indicators of more to come.
That’s important when one steps back and analyses exactly what Red Bull Racing is looking for.
In the immediate term it needs a team-mate for Verstappen. That’s the obvious top tier requirement. But at some point, Verstappen will move on.
The Dutchman has stated that he’s in F1 for a good time and not a long time.
Whether that means he’ll simply up and leave F1 like Nico Rosberg did at the end of 2016, or switch teams is anyone’s guess, but Horner and Marko need to begin thinking about life beyond Verstappen.
Looking at the driver selection through that lens, it is again Lawson that seems the more logical fit.
While fast enough on track, Tsunoda is not a driver to pick a team up and carry it forward; he is not a leader in the way Verstappen is, or Sebastian Vettel was before him.
Is Lawson? That remains to be seen, but the early indications are that he has that potential. And that’s another point in the Kiwis favour.
The decision as to who replaces Verstappen is a straight shootout between the RB drivers. With no other viable candidates – Daniel Ricciardo is not a consideration – Red Bull Racing will promote either Liam Lawson or Yuki Tsunoda.
Current money sits with the Lawson.
Discussion about this post